Virginia at Louisville

Final

Virginia11-3

30–27

Virginia wins by 3

Louisville9-4

1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q

UVA771006

LOU770103

Final

Virginia

30–27

Virginia wins by 3

Louisville

1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q

UVA771006

LOU770103

Overview P x P Box Analytics

Win probability

Final

Louisville

100%

Virginia

KickoffFinal

Scoring by quarter

FINAL

1234OTT

UVA77100630

LOU77010327

The suite, final

CollegeFootballData

-0.05EPA / play0.09

27%Success rate45%

1.61Explosiveness1.01

3.3Points / opp2.8

Team stats

237Total Yards383

14First Downs25

6-15Third Down Eff7-17

27:41Possession Time32:19

0Turnovers2

Drive chart

23 drives

UVALOUown goal → score

The line

Bovada via CFBD

Spread

Louisville -6.5

Total

Moneyline

+185 / -225

35.1% / 69.2% implied

Lines are shown for information only.

1912 Coins are earned in the app — no cash value, and they can't be bought or cashed out. Nothing here is real-money wagering. Responsible Play

Head to head

Last 10 · 2016–2025

2025UVA 30 · LOU 27Sat, 10/4

2024LOU 24 · UVA 20Sat, 10/12

2023UVA 24 · LOU 31Thu, 11/9

2022LOU 34 · UVA 17Sat, 10/8

2021UVA 34 · LOU 33Sat, 10/9

2020LOU 17 · UVA 31Sat, 11/14

2019UVA 21 · LOU 28Sat, 10/26

2018LOU 3 · UVA 27Sat, 9/22

2017UVA 21 · LOU 38Sat, 11/11

2016LOU 32 · UVA 25Sat, 10/29

Game information

KickoffSaturday, Oct 4 · 3:30 PM ET

VenueL&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville, KY

WatchESPN2

Attendance50,032

SurfaceTurf · outdoor

Abbreviations

EPAExpected points added — the change in expected points from one play

SRSuccess rate — plays gaining 50% of the yards to go on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd or 4th

WPWin probability — the live model's read on who wins from here

Deserve to winCollegeFootballData's measure of who earned the result, independent of the score

ExplExplosiveness — average EPA on successful plays

Full box scoreEvery line the ingest wrote for this game→