Tar Heels vs Cardinals

Gameday · TUE JAN 5

North CarolinaVSLouisvilleAP #10

Tip-off in

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––Hrs

––Min

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Tip9:00 PM ET

WatchTBA

LineNot posted

KFC Yum! Center · Louisville, KY

Win probability

1912 blend

33% UNCLOU 67%

Adj. efficiency30%

70%

SRS33%

67%

Elo37%

63%

LOU +4.5

Proj. margin

157.1

Proj. total

71.3

Proj. pace

Home court counts 3 points. Blend of Adj. efficiency, SRS and Elo.

Projected starters

PPG

• 1T.BrownG · 1.7 APG16.3
• 15J.StevensonF · 2.7 RPG8.3
• 17N.AvdalasG · 4.0 APG7.3
• 3M.AbleG · 2.0 APG11.7
• 21S.Keita4.7 RPG7.7

• 3J.ShelstadG · 4.0 APG10.5
• 7A.FolgueirasF · 4.5 RPG10.0
• 14A.WooleyG · 3.5 APG13.5
• 5S.TrimbleG · 3.5 APG12.0
• 40F.BidungaF · 8.0 RPG13.0

Ratings

CBBD · 2025-26

+23.3Adj. net rating+27.4

27thAdj. net rank17th

121.7Adj. offense124.1

98.5Adj. defense96.7

71.2Pace71.3

11.4SRS13.3

1958Elo2054

3–0Record2–0

Season per game

2026-27 · 3 games / 2026-27 · 2 games

88.3Points95.5

68.3Opp points63.5

55.9%eFG%56.9%

12.0%TO%12.0%

26.3%OREB%37.6%

.44FT rate.39

40%3PA rate53%

48%Assisted FG%57%

Last five games

North Carolina

W76-63vs WYO

W109-70vs WOF

W80-72vs WCU

L78-82vs VCU

L79-80vs CLEM

Louisville

W107-57vs MORE

W84-70vs UTC

L69-77@ MSU

W83-79vs USF

L73-78@ MIA

Head to head

Last 10 · 2017-18–2026-27

25-26LOU 74 · UNC 77Mon, 2/23

24-25UNC 70 · LOU 83Wed, 1/1

23-24LOU 70 · UNC 86Wed, 1/17

22-23UNC 80 · LOU 59Sat, 1/14

21-22LOU 63 · UNC 70Mon, 2/21

21-22UNC 90 · LOU 83Tue, 2/1

20-21LOU 54 · UNC 99Sat, 2/20

19-20UNC 55 · LOU 72Sat, 2/22

18-19LOU 70 · UNC 83Thu, 3/14

18-19UNC 79 · LOU 69Sat, 2/2

Game information

TipTuesday, Jan 5 · 9:00 PM ET

VenueKFC Yum! Center · Louisville, KY

Abbreviations

Adj.Adjusted — points scored or allowed per 100 possessions, corrected for the strength of the opponents faced. Net is offense minus defense

SRSSimple Rating System — average scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule

EloA rating that moves after every result, by more when the opponent was strong

PacePossessions per 40 minutes

PPGPoints per game

eFG%Effective field goal percentage — made threes count one and a half field goals

TO%Turnovers per 100 possessions

OREB%The share of a team's own missed shots it rebounds

FT rateFree throws attempted per field goal attempted

3PA rateThe share of field goal attempts taken from three

Scores, plays and box from CollegeBasketballData

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