Wolfpack vs Tar Heels

Gameday · SAT JAN 9

NC StateVSNorth Carolina

Tip-off in

––Days

––Hrs

––Min

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Tip12:00 PM ET

WatchESPN2

LineNot posted

Dean E. Smith Center · Chapel Hill, NC

Win probability

1912 blend

34% NCSUUNC 66%

Adj. efficiency33%

67%

SRS32%

68%

Elo37%

63%

UNC +3.9

Proj. margin

154.9

Proj. total

69.2

Proj. pace

Home court counts 3 points. Blend of Adj. efficiency, SRS and Elo.

Projected starters

PPG

• 0P.EdmeadG · 6.3 APG12.0
• 2P.McNeil Jr.G · 1.0 APG13.0
• 22V.LubinF · 8.3 RPG15.3
• 11D.AdamsG · 3.3 APG10.3
• 14K.EvansF · 4.7 RPG5.0

• 1T.BrownG · 1.7 APG16.3
• 15J.StevensonF · 2.7 RPG8.3
• 17N.AvdalasG · 4.0 APG7.3
• 3M.AbleG · 2.0 APG11.7
• 21S.Keita4.7 RPG7.7

Ratings

CBBD · 2025-26

+20.7Adj. net rating+23.3

34thAdj. net rank27th

124.1Adj. offense121.7

103.4Adj. defense98.5

67.2Pace71.2

9.4SRS11.4

1868Elo1958

3–0Record3–0

Season per game

2026-27 · 3 games

84.7Points88.3

62.3Opp points68.3

58.3%eFG%55.9%

17.0%TO%12.0%

32.5%OREB%26.3%

.25FT rate.44

45%3PA rate40%

61%Assisted FG%48%

Last five games

NC State

W94-60vs PRES

W77-63vs ETSU

W83-64vs CAM

L66-68vs TEX

L74-81@ UVA

North Carolina

W76-63vs WYO

W109-70vs WOF

W80-72vs WCU

L78-82vs VCU

L79-80vs CLEM

Head to head

Last 10 · 2017-18–2026-27

25-26UNC 58 · NCSU 82Tue, 2/17

24-25NCSU 73 · UNC 97Wed, 2/19

24-25UNC 63 · NCSU 61Sat, 1/11

23-24NCSU 84 · UNC 76Sat, 3/16

23-24NCSU 70 · UNC 79Sat, 3/2

23-24UNC 67 · NCSU 54Wed, 1/10

22-23UNC 69 · NCSU 77Sun, 2/19

22-23NCSU 69 · UNC 80Sat, 1/21

21-22UNC 84 · NCSU 74Sat, 2/26

21-22NCSU 80 · UNC 100Sat, 1/29

Game information

TipSaturday, Jan 9 · 12:00 PM ET

VenueDean E. Smith Center · Chapel Hill, NC

WatchESPN2

Abbreviations

Adj.Adjusted — points scored or allowed per 100 possessions, corrected for the strength of the opponents faced. Net is offense minus defense

SRSSimple Rating System — average scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule

EloA rating that moves after every result, by more when the opponent was strong

PacePossessions per 40 minutes

PPGPoints per game

eFG%Effective field goal percentage — made threes count one and a half field goals

TO%Turnovers per 100 possessions

OREB%The share of a team's own missed shots it rebounds

FT rateFree throws attempted per field goal attempted

3PA rateThe share of field goal attempts taken from three

Scores, plays and box from CollegeBasketballData

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