Cavaliers vs Tar Heels

Gameday · TUE JAN 19

VirginiaAP #6VSNorth Carolina

Tip-off in

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––Hrs

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Tip9:00 PM ET

WatchESPN

LineNot posted

Dean E. Smith Center · Chapel Hill, NC

Win probability

1912 blend

55% UVAUNC 45%

Adj. efficiency48%

52%

SRS48%

52%

Elo70%

30%

UVA +1.7

Proj. margin

158.1

Proj. total

71.8

Proj. pace

Home court counts 3 points. Blend of Adj. efficiency, SRS and Elo.

Projected starters

PPG

• 5S.LewisG · 2.3 APG15.0
• 17J.GrunlohC · 2.8 BPG13.0
• 1C.MalloryG · 5.0 APG14.8
• 28T.RidderF · 8.3 RPG17.8
• 22N.Adekunle3.0 RPG8.8

• 1T.BrownG · 1.7 APG16.3
• 15J.StevensonF · 2.7 RPG8.3
• 17N.AvdalasG · 4.0 APG7.3
• 3M.AbleG · 2.0 APG11.7
• 21S.Keita4.7 RPG7.7

Ratings

CBBD · 2025-26

+26.8Adj. net rating+23.3

18thAdj. net rank27th

123.3Adj. offense121.7

96.5Adj. defense98.5

72.5Pace71.2

13.8SRS11.4

2107Elo1958

4–0Record3–0

Season per game

2026-27 · 4 games / 2026-27 · 3 games

93.0Points88.3

66.3Opp points68.3

58.1%eFG%55.9%

17.0%TO%12.0%

38.6%OREB%26.3%

.28FT rate.44

47%3PA rate40%

67%Assisted FG%48%

Last five games

Virginia

W95-61vs BUCK

W91-72vs ARK

W97-72vs NE

W89-60vs DREX

L72-79vs TENN

North Carolina

W76-63vs WYO

W109-70vs WOF

W80-72vs WCU

L78-82vs VCU

L79-80vs CLEM

Head to head

Last 10 · 2017-18–2026-27

25-26UNC 85 · UVA 80Sat, 1/24

24-25UVA 66 · UNC 81Sat, 2/22

23-24UNC 54 · UVA 44Sat, 2/24

22-23UNC 59 · UVA 68Thu, 3/9

22-23UVA 63 · UNC 71Sat, 2/25

22-23UNC 58 · UVA 65Tue, 1/10

21-22UVA 43 · UNC 63Thu, 3/10

21-22UVA 58 · UNC 74Sat, 1/8

20-21UNC 48 · UVA 60Sat, 2/13

19-20UVA 64 · UNC 62Sat, 2/15

Game information

TipTuesday, Jan 19 · 9:00 PM ET

VenueDean E. Smith Center · Chapel Hill, NC

WatchESPN

Abbreviations

Adj.Adjusted — points scored or allowed per 100 possessions, corrected for the strength of the opponents faced. Net is offense minus defense

SRSSimple Rating System — average scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule

EloA rating that moves after every result, by more when the opponent was strong

PacePossessions per 40 minutes

PPGPoints per game

eFG%Effective field goal percentage — made threes count one and a half field goals

TO%Turnovers per 100 possessions

OREB%The share of a team's own missed shots it rebounds

FT rateFree throws attempted per field goal attempted

3PA rateThe share of field goal attempts taken from three

Scores, plays and box from CollegeBasketballData

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