Tar Heels vs Blue Devils

Gameday · SAT FEB 13

North CarolinaVSDukeAP #2

Tip-off in

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––Hrs

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Tip5:30 PM ET

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LineNot posted

Cameron Indoor Stadium · Durham, NC

Win probability

1912 blend

10% UNCDUKE 90%

Adj. efficiency8%

92%

SRS12%

88%

Elo10%

90%

DUKE +9.3

Proj. margin

158.5

Proj. total

72.3

Proj. pace

Home court counts 3 points. Blend of Adj. efficiency, SRS and Elo.

Projected starters

PPG

• 1T.BrownG · 1.7 APG16.3
• 15J.StevensonF · 2.7 RPG8.3
• 17N.AvdalasG · 4.0 APG7.3
• 3M.AbleG · 2.0 APG11.7
• 21S.Keita4.7 RPG7.7

• 13J.BlackwellG · 1.0 APG11.7
• 21P.Ngongba IIC · 2.0 BPG16.3
• 7D.SarrG · 2.3 APG11.3
• 2C.BoozerG · 5.7 APG8.7
• 30J.Boumtje5.3 RPG9.7

Ratings

CBBD · 2025-26

+23.3Adj. net rating+40.4

27thAdj. net rank2nd

121.7Adj. offense129.2

98.5Adj. defense88.7

71.2Pace73.5

11.4SRS21.1

1958Elo2349

3–0Record2–1

Season per game

2026-27 · 3 games

88.3Points90.0

68.3Opp points60.3

55.9%eFG%54.1%

12.0%TO%18.0%

26.3%OREB%35.4%

.44FT rate.57

40%3PA rate40%

48%Assisted FG%64%

Last five games

North Carolina

W76-63vs WYO

W109-70vs WOF

W80-72vs WCU

L78-82vs VCU

L79-80vs CLEM

Duke

L73-79vs MSU

W113-52vs CCU

W84-50vs ARMY

L72-73vs CONN

W80-75vs SJU

Head to head

Last 10 · 2017-18–2026-27

25-26UNC 61 · DUKE 76Sat, 3/7

25-26DUKE 68 · UNC 71Sat, 2/7

24-25UNC 71 · DUKE 74Fri, 3/14

24-25DUKE 82 · UNC 69Sat, 3/8

24-25UNC 70 · DUKE 87Sat, 2/1

23-24UNC 84 · DUKE 79Sat, 3/9

23-24DUKE 84 · UNC 93Sat, 2/3

22-23DUKE 62 · UNC 57Sat, 3/4

22-23UNC 57 · DUKE 63Sat, 2/4

21-22UNC 81 · DUKE 77Sat, 4/2

Game information

TipSaturday, Feb 13 · 5:30 PM ET

VenueCameron Indoor Stadium · Durham, NC

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Abbreviations

Adj.Adjusted — points scored or allowed per 100 possessions, corrected for the strength of the opponents faced. Net is offense minus defense

SRSSimple Rating System — average scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule

EloA rating that moves after every result, by more when the opponent was strong

PacePossessions per 40 minutes

PPGPoints per game

eFG%Effective field goal percentage — made threes count one and a half field goals

TO%Turnovers per 100 possessions

OREB%The share of a team's own missed shots it rebounds

FT rateFree throws attempted per field goal attempted

3PA rateThe share of field goal attempts taken from three

Scores, plays and box from CollegeBasketballData

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