Cavaliers vs Blue Devils

Gameday · MON MAR 1

VirginiaAP #6VSDukeAP #2

Tip-off in

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Tip7:00 PM ET

WatchESPN

LineNot posted

Cameron Indoor Stadium · Durham, NC

Win probability

1912 blend

16% UVADUKE 84%

Adj. efficiency12%

88%

SRS17%

83%

Elo20%

80%

DUKE +8.0

Proj. margin

159.8

Proj. total

73.0

Proj. pace

Home court counts 3 points. Blend of Adj. efficiency, SRS and Elo.

Projected starters

PPG

• 5S.LewisG · 2.3 APG15.0
• 17J.GrunlohC · 2.8 BPG13.0
• 1C.MalloryG · 5.0 APG14.8
• 28T.RidderF · 8.3 RPG17.8
• 22N.Adekunle3.0 RPG8.8

• 13J.BlackwellG · 1.0 APG11.7
• 21P.Ngongba IIC · 2.0 BPG16.3
• 7D.SarrG · 2.3 APG11.3
• 2C.BoozerG · 5.7 APG8.7
• 30J.Boumtje5.3 RPG9.7

Ratings

CBBD · 2025-26

+26.8Adj. net rating+40.4

18thAdj. net rank2nd

123.3Adj. offense129.2

96.5Adj. defense88.7

72.5Pace73.5

13.8SRS21.1

2107Elo2349

4–0Record2–1

Season per game

2026-27 · 4 games / 2026-27 · 3 games

93.0Points90.0

66.3Opp points60.3

58.1%eFG%54.1%

17.0%TO%18.0%

38.6%OREB%35.4%

.28FT rate.57

47%3PA rate40%

67%Assisted FG%64%

Last five games

Virginia

W95-61vs BUCK

W91-72vs ARK

W97-72vs NE

W89-60vs DREX

L72-79vs TENN

Duke

L73-79vs MSU

W113-52vs CCU

W84-50vs ARMY

L72-73vs CONN

W80-75vs SJU

Head to head

Last 10 · 2017-18–2026-27

25-26UVA 70 · DUKE 74Sat, 3/14

25-26UVA 51 · DUKE 77Sat, 2/28

24-25DUKE 80 · UVA 62Mon, 2/17

23-24UVA 48 · DUKE 73Sat, 3/2

22-23DUKE 59 · UVA 49Sat, 3/11

22-23DUKE 62 · UVA 69Sat, 2/11

21-22DUKE 65 · UVA 61Wed, 2/23

21-22UVA 69 · DUKE 68Mon, 2/7

20-21UVA 65 · DUKE 66Sat, 2/20

19-20DUKE 50 · UVA 52Sat, 2/29

Game information

TipMonday, Mar 1 · 7:00 PM ET

VenueCameron Indoor Stadium · Durham, NC

WatchESPN

Abbreviations

Adj.Adjusted — points scored or allowed per 100 possessions, corrected for the strength of the opponents faced. Net is offense minus defense

SRSSimple Rating System — average scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule

EloA rating that moves after every result, by more when the opponent was strong

PacePossessions per 40 minutes

PPGPoints per game

eFG%Effective field goal percentage — made threes count one and a half field goals

TO%Turnovers per 100 possessions

OREB%The share of a team's own missed shots it rebounds

FT rateFree throws attempted per field goal attempted

3PA rateThe share of field goal attempts taken from three

Scores, plays and box from CollegeBasketballData

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