Spartans vs Wildcats

Gameday · TUE MAR 2

Michigan StateAP #5VSNorthwestern

Tip-off in

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––Hrs

––Min

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Tip8:30 PM ET

WatchFS1

LineNot posted

Welsh-Ryan Arena · Evanston, IL

Win probability

1912 blend

80% MSUNU 20%

Adj. efficiency76%

24%

SRS77%

23%

Elo88%

12%

MSU +2.4

Proj. margin

148.7

Proj. total

68.0

Proj. pace

Home court counts 3 points. Blend of Adj. efficiency, SRS and Elo.

Projected starters

PPG

• 1J.Fears Jr.G · 10.3 APG14.3
• 6J.ScottF · 8.0 RPG9.3
• 25J.Jervis3.7 RPG10.0
• 55C.CarrF · 5.0 RPG10.3
• 34A.BonkeC · 0.7 BPG7.3

• 44A.CiaravinoG · 1.7 APG11.7
• 4L.PrattG · 2.3 APG18.3
• 3J.WestG · 8.7 APG21.3
• 8O.FederikoF · 3.3 RPG3.3
• 7C.SmithF · 1.0 RPG3.0

Ratings

CBBD · 2025-26

+29.5Adj. net rating+13.7

11thAdj. net rank60th

122.7Adj. offense117.6

93.2Adj. defense103.9

72.8Pace63.2

15.2SRS4.1

2150Elo1809

3–0Record3–0

Season per game

2026-27 · 3 games

88.7Points78.7

64.3Opp points60.0

58.9%eFG%57.8%

18.0%TO%13.0%

28.7%OREB%28.6%

.53FT rate.35

38%3PA rate48%

63%Assisted FG%64%

Last five games

Michigan State

W79-73@ DUKE

W91-61vs TOL

W96-59vs QUIN

L63-67@ CONN

W77-69vs LOU

Northwestern

W72-55vs BU

W78-65vs STBK

W86-60vs BING

L68-81@ PUR

W74-61@ IU

Head to head

Last 10 · 2017-18–2026-27

25-26NU 66 · MSU 76Thu, 1/8

24-25MSU 78 · NU 68Sun, 1/12

23-24NU 49 · MSU 53Wed, 3/6

23-24MSU 74 · NU 88Sun, 1/7

22-23NU 70 · MSU 63Sun, 12/4

21-22NU 64 · MSU 62Sat, 1/15

21-22MSU 73 · NU 67Sun, 1/2

20-21MSU 65 · NU 79Sun, 12/20

19-20NU 50 · MSU 79Wed, 1/29

19-20MSU 77 · NU 72Wed, 12/18

Game information

TipTuesday, Mar 2 · 8:30 PM ET

VenueWelsh-Ryan Arena · Evanston, IL

WatchFS1

Abbreviations

Adj.Adjusted — points scored or allowed per 100 possessions, corrected for the strength of the opponents faced. Net is offense minus defense

SRSSimple Rating System — average scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule

EloA rating that moves after every result, by more when the opponent was strong

PacePossessions per 40 minutes

PPGPoints per game

eFG%Effective field goal percentage — made threes count one and a half field goals

TO%Turnovers per 100 possessions

OREB%The share of a team's own missed shots it rebounds

FT rateFree throws attempted per field goal attempted

3PA rateThe share of field goal attempts taken from three

Scores, plays and box from CollegeBasketballData

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