Blue Devils vs Tar Heels

Gameday · SAT MAR 6

DukeAP #2VSNorth Carolina

Tip time TBD

TipTBD

WatchESPN

LineNot posted

Dean E. Smith Center · Chapel Hill, NC

Win probability

1912 blend

81% DUKEUNC 19%

Adj. efficiency80%

20%

SRS73%

27%

Elo90%

10%

DUKE +3.3

Proj. margin

158.5

Proj. total

72.3

Proj. pace

Home court counts 3 points. Blend of Adj. efficiency, SRS and Elo.

Projected starters

PPG

• 13J.BlackwellG · 1.0 APG11.7
• 21P.Ngongba IIC · 2.0 BPG16.3
• 7D.SarrG · 2.3 APG11.3
• 2C.BoozerG · 5.7 APG8.7
• 30J.Boumtje5.3 RPG9.7

• 1T.BrownG · 1.7 APG16.3
• 15J.StevensonF · 2.7 RPG8.3
• 17N.AvdalasG · 4.0 APG7.3
• 3M.AbleG · 2.0 APG11.7
• 21S.Keita4.7 RPG7.7

Ratings

CBBD · 2025-26

+40.4Adj. net rating+23.3

2ndAdj. net rank27th

129.2Adj. offense121.7

88.7Adj. defense98.5

73.5Pace71.2

21.1SRS11.4

2349Elo1958

2–1Record3–0

Season per game

2026-27 · 3 games

90.0Points88.3

60.3Opp points68.3

54.1%eFG%55.9%

18.0%TO%12.0%

35.4%OREB%26.3%

.57FT rate.44

40%3PA rate40%

64%Assisted FG%48%

Last five games

Duke

L73-79vs MSU

W113-52vs CCU

W84-50vs ARMY

L72-73vs CONN

W80-75vs SJU

North Carolina

W76-63vs WYO

W109-70vs WOF

W80-72vs WCU

L78-82vs VCU

L79-80vs CLEM

Head to head

Last 10 · 2017-18–2026-27

25-26UNC 61 · DUKE 76Sat, 3/7

25-26DUKE 68 · UNC 71Sat, 2/7

24-25UNC 71 · DUKE 74Fri, 3/14

24-25DUKE 82 · UNC 69Sat, 3/8

24-25UNC 70 · DUKE 87Sat, 2/1

23-24UNC 84 · DUKE 79Sat, 3/9

23-24DUKE 84 · UNC 93Sat, 2/3

22-23DUKE 62 · UNC 57Sat, 3/4

22-23UNC 57 · DUKE 63Sat, 2/4

21-22UNC 81 · DUKE 77Sat, 4/2

Game information

TipSaturday, Mar 6 · time TBD

VenueDean E. Smith Center · Chapel Hill, NC

WatchESPN

Abbreviations

Adj.Adjusted — points scored or allowed per 100 possessions, corrected for the strength of the opponents faced. Net is offense minus defense

SRSSimple Rating System — average scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule

EloA rating that moves after every result, by more when the opponent was strong

PacePossessions per 40 minutes

PPGPoints per game

eFG%Effective field goal percentage — made threes count one and a half field goals

TO%Turnovers per 100 possessions

OREB%The share of a team's own missed shots it rebounds

FT rateFree throws attempted per field goal attempted

3PA rateThe share of field goal attempts taken from three

Scores, plays and box from CollegeBasketballData

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